What's up with Bitcoin mining hash rate changes?

I noticed Bitcoin's price crash from $69k to $15.5k from Nov 2021 to Dec 2022, but the mining hash rate kept rising in 2022. Now in 2026, it's dropping a bit, around 1.15B TH/s to 945M TH/s. Why aren’t miners jumping back in this time?

My hash rate is currently 1.095 ZH/s, even with mining being unprofitable. There were issues like the US power shortage due to cold weather, now sorted. Also, the Iran situation might be impacting things, but it’s hard to pin down exact numbers.

You might wanna check the hash rate chart for 2022. There was also a drop between 2021 and 2022, likely because of Tesla selling their Bitcoin and the mining ban in China. Today’s situation seems different though, with wars and tariffs affecting things.

I think AI is causing the current drop in mining hash rate. Miners might be switching to AI compute resources instead. But those who believe in Bitcoin's long-term potential will keep mining. Still, many will move to AI for quick profits.

Not all miners are switching, maybe just a few. 51% or more hash rate drop would be needed for a big shift. The current drop is only 13.5%, partly due to Iran’s mining being cut off. So it’s not just AI.

I get your point, but I’m talking about 2022 being a bear market. We’ll see if the hash rate bounces back soon. It’s weird how it increased in 2022 despite everything.

You’re right, 2022 didn’t crush the hash rate like we’re seeing now from Nov 2025 to Mar 2026. But don’t forget about the gear shortage from COVID. Miners were still making money last year, so the hash rate didn’t drop much.

True, and don’t forget the crackdown on Chinese miners in 2021. That gear had to be moved and set up again, which affected the supply.

Hash rates usually rise over time, but there can be dips. New tech comes out, and older stuff gets unprofitable, forcing miners to upgrade.

Not so sure about that anymore. This cycle might break the trend. I’ve tracked it for years, and we’ve never had an 18-month dip before.

Yeah, it’s early in 2026 to say anything definitive. Hash rate can consolidate even when prices go up. With the current power prices and a weak market, any small drop isn’t surprising.

Exactly, we need to revisit this in a few months. We’ve never seen a drop at the 18-month mark before, so let’s see how it plays out.

What happens if Bitcoin drops to $40k? Costs might be too high for mining operations.

If it hits $30k and bounces back to $70k, it’s fine. But if it stays low for too long, miners will struggle, and small companies could go bankrupt.

That’s pretty accurate, maybe around 80%. Countries mess things up like China did in 2021, and now the US is turning off Iran’s mining.

Turning on/off a huge plant isn’t as easy as flipping a switch. Energy companies need long-term contracts. Miners are shifting to AI, not just shutting down.

Right, if you have a contract for power and stop mining, you sell the remaining contract to an AI company.

Anyone else waiting for cheap ASIC miners when Bitcoin drops to $48k or lower? That’s when to buy! Many miners will have to shut down if prices keep falling.

ASIC manufacturers are still honoring their contracts. Prices haven’t dropped much yet. If Bitcoin hits $40k, then the mining gear prices will go down, but we shouldn’t rush to conclusions.

The S21XP was at $7200, now it’s around $3600. It’s a solid unit. Not saying it’ll drop much lower anytime soon.