Is BIP 110 actually going to happen?

Saw on Predyx that traders are giving this like 14% odds. Pretty wild considering over 6k people trading it and the volume is crazy high. Curious what everyone else thinks about this actually going live.

Yeah man, BIP-110 is already getting traction among the Bitcoin crowd. August 2026 it activates, mark my words. Honestly you should upgrade your node software, grab Bitcoin Knots from their releases page. Core is basically done for at this point, full of vulnerabilities. Don't waste your money gambling on this though.

That's a pretty big claim you're making there. Way too confident imo. Look, whether people run Core, Knots, or whatever else is their call to make, but saying Core is obsolete and broken? That's not the same as just supporting BIP-110. A proposal isn't the same as consensus, even if some devs like it. Real activation needs the whole ecosystem on board. Until then, calling Core dead is just wrong. People gotta read the tech themselves and pick what works for them.

Here's the thing though, node users are what actually matters. Miners, exchanges, they're basically noise. If regular users decide to run BIP-110 code, everyone else has to adapt or we get a fork. And if we fork? Market decides what's worth more. Sound money flows toward the version that actually works better as money. That's just how it goes.

Most people in this space are actually against BIP-110, it won't get anywhere. I'm sitting this one out. Even Saylor, biggest Bitcoin holder we got, already said his piece about it. That 14% figure is way too high if you ask me. Only shills promoting this thing, probably paid to do it or maybe same dude with 50 accounts. Waste of time honestly.

Some folks will activate it, others won't care. You can always set stricter rules on your own node but then you need miners backing you up too, otherwise you're just mining solo. Forcing activation without like 55% hashrate backing you? That's gambling with your coins. On a tiny chain you're praying for 100 confirmations while waiting weeks with barely any blocks coming in.

Actually BIP-110 uses BIP-9 signaling with 55% threshold so it can't activate on 1-2% hashrate, that's not how it works. Should've been 51% honestly to show everyone this is basically a 51% attack dressed up fancy.

But here's what most people miss, the code has a hidden rule that forces activation even if zero miners signal for it. At block 965664 the new rules just turn on automatically. Clients running that software will "vote" for BIP-110, except the gun is already at their head so it's not really a vote at all. Kinda like asking someone under occupation which country they pick, you know?

Ngl I don't get all the technical stuff, too deep for me. I'm more into the economics side of things, Austrian School perspective. Bitcoin's supposed to be peer-to-peer cash right? Each person picks their own software. Kinda like old systems where everyone tracked payments themselves. Miners just produce the coins because real money has to be hard to make.

Yeah that's normal how it works. But Knots went rogue with this "mandatory activation" thing. After block 961,632 their client starts rejecting blocks that don't signal, even if zero miners are supporting it. So if Knots is a minority, they just fork off. They'll enforce signaling from that block, then need 4,032 more blocks to hit 965,664. Normally that's like a month but with 1% hashrate? Years, probably.

My bad on the block height, looked at their docs and they're confusing as hell about what they're actually doing. But I gotta say, I covered your Austrian economics angle pretty thoroughly in another thread and you kinda ghosted it instead of continuing. Just reiterated the same points here. Not trying to be rude but looks like you're not really engaging, just repeating yourself in different places.

This writeup is solid, actually one of the best takes I've seen on BIP-110. Lopp's been around forever and most people respect his work. Anyone serious about understanding this should read it.

Lopp's a known Bitcoin enemy, full-on shitcoin shill, funded that Citrea garbage that Core even adopted. Watch that video if you want the real story. Read wtfhappenedinfeb2023 instead, way better source than Lopp's garbage.

Most people don't get Bitcoin because they don't understand money. They look for some other use case when the money part IS the point. Since almost nobody gets this, scammers can run circles around them. Whole crypto industry is basically scams now. Attracts sociopaths and fraudsters. People treat Bitcoin like it's magic when they don't understand the fiat system and what Bitcoin actually fixes.

Prediction market odds aren't real probability, just what people are willing to bet. OP's spreading FUD to farm posts, that's all. Real chance of this happening? Less than 1%. Can't even measure it precisely but right now it's got zero shot. Also Luke-jr being a pedo means anyone backing Knots is basically endorsing that, so yeah Core looking pretty good next to that.

Did anyone actually read what "Yes" and "No" mean in that prediction? Titles are misleading. The conditions are vague as hell. If greatest PoW applies to both chains regardless of BIP-110 signaling, it resolves No anyway since current blocks with BIP-110 signal are under 1%. Easy money for No side, could even just broadcast one violating tx to lock it in.

It's actually an easy call. In like 25 days from that Knots death march tracker, the nodes enforcing 110 start rejecting non-signaling blocks. Within hours, maybe one hour, one chain gets more PoW. Once dominant chain hits 10 blocks, unless a ton of miners flip, it's over. That's when you bet if you want certainty. Now it's obvious No but timing matters for odds.

Haven't kept up much honestly, just hope the right side wins lol. But I'm wondering if Core devs would ever say something like, "Bitcoin should work how Satoshi made it, just money transfer, not data storage." And yeah there's no perfect filter for that stuff yet so OP-Return stays as is to avoid breaking things. But could they at least say that's the goal?

Stateless nodes are already a thing being worked on so yeah losing data is happening already. Luke-jr shot down any proposal that'd make that clearer or reduce disruption though. But watch your wording, "losing data" could get confused with that Cat proposal that wanted to literally confiscate Bitcoin used for inscriptions. That's theft, legally and morally wrong.

Wait really? I thought people voted against it already? Saw some pool operators totally against BIP-110 in a video, maybe I'm mixed up though.