Will my transaction be confirmed in under a year?

I got a Trezor One and I sent some BTC to a new segwit address after my old one had almost nothing left. We made the transfer on 11-11-2023, but the fees are super low right now. Do you think I’ll have to wait up to 2 years for confirmation? Let me know what you think.

Lol yeah, good luck waiting a year! That fee of 12 sats/vbyte is way too low to help it get mined anytime soon. If fees don't drop, it'll probably get dropped from the mempool before that.

You're transferring a tiny amount, like 0.00005047BTC, right? Even if it does confirm, it’s basically useless at those fees. Always check the fees before sending, or you're just creating Bitcoin dust.

Exactly what I was thinking. If those fees don't drop soon, it might be gone from the mempool within a couple of weeks.

This sounds like a shady way to promote scrypt algo. You could’ve just sent a small amount with LTC or Doge without all this hassle. Not saying the original poster is trying to promote that, but it’s kind of the vibe.

What do you mean by old and new segwit? No need to wait that long. Your transaction will either confirm or be dropped before a year is up. There are ways to speed it up, but with such a small amount, is it really worth it?

I think it's already dropped. I can’t see it on the block explorer anymore. Check your wallet. You might need to wait for fees to drop unless you resend it.

Old segwit addresses start with 3 and are Base58 encoded. New segwit addresses begin with bc1 and are Bech32 encoded. They usually have slightly different fee structures, the newer ones being cheaper.

Looks like it’s back in some nodes. It’s been opted in for replace-by-fee (RBF). If you increase the fee to at least 2140 satoshis, you can use a free accelerator to speed it up.

No one node defines 'the' mempool. Just because one explorer dropped the transaction doesn’t mean the others did too. Plus, OP's RBF lets them change it any time.

Mempools are not all the same. A transaction might drop from one but stay in another. Seriously, thinking your transaction will hang around for a year is unrealistic.

Rebroadcasting could make it last longer though. Just send 1 sat and keep rebroadcasting it, and it might stick around for ages.

True, but it’s rare for a transaction to stay in the mempool for that long without a good reason. Regular rebroadcasting or a wallet with that feature could help.

It doesn’t even have to be rebroadcast to stay, some nodes have much higher limits and might keep it longer than a year.

I think OP was joking. But I really wonder, why send such a minuscule amount anyway? It’s essentially pointless, especially with the fees being 12 sats/vbyte.

Lightning Network is your friend for tiny transactions. Avoid those hefty fees that are way higher than your actual transaction value.

Yeah, this transaction might take some time, but I doubt it’ll take a whole year. There's a policy that purges old transactions from mempool after around 14 days.

It worked after 3 months in one case, though it was really just a social test. Interesting to see how that played out.

What exactly was the social test? Seems kinda weird to experiment like that.

It’s clear that some nodes will hold onto dropped transactions under specific conditions. Interesting to see how it can still get relayed to miners.