I’ve been noticing something about Polymarket lately... seems like they underprice the "boring" bets. Like, if an outcome is super likely but the payout is tiny, most folks just skip it. Meanwhile, the longshots get all the attention. The obvious bets end up being cheaper than they should be. Yesterday’s market on a peace deal felt like a prime example. Not saying it’s a sure thing, but the market seemed to underestimate the odds of it happening.
Totally agree with you. Low payouts make people avoid betting on what seems like a sure thing. Honestly, I’d rather go for bets that are closer to 50/50. It’s just more exciting that way. But yeah, sometimes those low-probability wins can pay off big, but they’re rare. Just doesn’t feel worth the risk most of the time.
This happens all the time on Polymarket and other platforms like it. Predictable outcomes usually mean lower rewards, and the opposite is true as well. That peace deal? Super tricky to call, especially considering past events. Like, remember when JD Vance couldn’t even strike a deal with Iran? The chances of anything happening now seem pretty slim, and so do the rewards. It’s pretty basic logic.
I thought you were going to get into some crazy odds patterns, but all I’m hearing is the usual stuff. It’s kinda obvious that high probability bets will have low odds, and low probability bets will have high odds. Nothing new here, honestly.