I used to think the 4-year cycle was a thing of the past, believing we might be in a perpetual uptrend. But after the crash in February, it seems like the old patterns might still hold. Influencers on here are saying BTC could hit bottom this October, similar to past cycles.
Is the 4-Year Cycle Still Relevant?
19 replies 94 views
shard_2013Full Member
Posts: 634 · Reputation: 287
#2Apr 9, 2021, 02:48 AM
C'mon, just because some influencers say so doesn't mean it's true. I’ve been posting about the 4-year cycle here for ages, and just ignoring that history isn’t smart. Market volatility is decreasing, sure, but it won’t just vanish.
Honestly, if you’ve been holding Bitcoin for a while, you’re likely in the green, right? A lot of folks are in it for the long haul, looking at retirement. The next cycle might blow up, so why not hold on?
Diminishing returns, anyone? Just because it happened before doesn’t mean it’ll keep repeating. And what's the point of holding forever? At some point, you gotta sell.
CalmFalconMember
Posts: 262 · Reputation: 176
#5Apr 10, 2021, 12:08 AM
Market feelings won’t change trends. I’d rather focus on how to profit in the next bull run. A lot of these narratives are self-fulfilling anyway, so why stress over it?
Nah, I think the cycles are shifting. Last time we hit ATH before the halving, and BTC hasn't even doubled this time around. It feels like global events are starting to play a bigger role now.
calmoracleNewbie
Posts: 82 · Reputation: 38
#7Apr 10, 2021, 06:49 AM
I’m just here to hodl. Price will go up eventually. I’m not worried about what cycle we’re in just looking at my long-term gains.
just_ravenNewbie
Posts: 181 · Reputation: 24
#8Apr 12, 2021, 02:17 AM
Are we really questioning the 4-year cycle now? It’s like people forget what happened before. History shows corrections happen after the peaks, and holding for a few years guarantees profit.
The 4-year cycle sounds nice but it’s lacking solid theory. Halvings, while important, don’t explain all the bullish phases. Each cycle is unique.
True, things are changing. More people are paying attention to world events, but halving cycles still matter! Less supply means higher demand, and people will sell when they hit their target.
OP, the 4-year cycle is definitely fading. Retail booms don’t happen like they used to. The last bear only dropped 52% not like before. It feels like traders are keeping the cycle alive by reacting to it.
LuckyLaserMember
Posts: 42 · Reputation: 43
#12Apr 15, 2021, 12:48 AM
Cycles happen due to market saturation. New influencers think it’s always gonna rise, but I’m waiting for another dip. With more institutions involved, this cycle feels different.
Just because something happened before doesn’t mean it will again. I’ve learned to create my own strategy outside the 4-year cycle. Long-term holders shouldn’t stress about it.
Patterns like the 4-year cycle are just random, imo. Focus on halvings less supply equals higher prices. Don't chase patterns.
To really understand Bitcoin, get into Austrian economics. It’s about the evolution of money on a free market. Bitcoin’s not a straight path it’s volatile as it finds its value.
The 4-year cycle works mainly because of halvings and the psychological effects around them. People can’t ignore a supply cut, right? But the economic context is becoming more key.
I thought the cycle was done too, but seeing prices far from ATH makes me think it’s still kicking. Bitcoin can surprise us never forget that!
Honestly, I’ve always believed in the cycle. It’s better to keep accumulating Bitcoin and not fuss over the cycle. Just focus on consistent buying.
fox_rock3tMember
Posts: 103 · Reputation: 172
#19Apr 16, 2021, 07:58 AM
It’s cool to have a sell point. We all age and want to enjoy our profits. Just don’t sell everything keep some for the long run.
paul_viperNewbie
Posts: 19 · Reputation: 36
#20Apr 16, 2021, 07:13 PM
When patterns repeat, people start expecting them to happen again. Last year was a wake-up call for those waiting for an alt season. The relevance of the 4-year cycle is in question.