Looks like today’s FOMC meeting is set to stream on the Fed’s YouTube channel. If anyone has a better link, drop it here.
Apparently, Powell is sticking with the current rates. Last change was ages ago in December 2024, when he cut by 25 basis points.
No surprise here. Fed kept rates steady, and honestly, the market barely moved. Everyone saw this coming. A cut would’ve sent stocks flying, but unemployment’s holding steady, which is probably why they’re hesitating. I just wonder if they’re waiting for worse news before acting.
Yeah, Trump’s pushing for a rate cut, but his own actions are complicating things. Powell cited tariffs and the Middle East conflict as reasons for no change. I can’t wait to see how Trump reacts. He’s called Powell stupid before, so I doubt he’ll hold back this time. We might see a cut in September if things with tariffs and the conflict calm down.
This is classic. The Fed is always late to the game. They wait for the data to come in, which is old news by the time it gets to them.
As long as rates stay the same, things are ‘okay’ I guess. Markets are kinda boring right now.
Powell is definitely playing catch-up. It feels like he’s waiting for a disaster before doing anything. He talks about tariffs causing inflation, but since Trump’s been at it, inflation has actually dropped. I’m no expert, but it seems like he’s hurting Americans by not lowering rates. I’m hoping for at least one cut this year, maybe in September.
From what I’ve read, they’re still signaling two cuts for this year, but with the war going on, I’m skeptical. Just when things looked like they might improve, bam, chaos. This situation is only gonna get worse before it gets better.
The Fed holding rates steady at 4.25 4.50% was totally expected, and the market barely moved. Powell keeps saying they’re in it for the long haul, waiting for real data like inflation or unemployment changes.
Makes sense to hold off right now, but if a recession hits, will they panic cut like in 2001 or 2008?
Exactly! The issue is they’re so reactive. Waiting for the data means they’re always one step behind. They should be proactive instead of waiting for the inevitable, which is the spike in unemployment. We’re already seeing signs of trouble with bankruptcies and credit issues.
Totally agree. It’s a tricky balance. The last time the economy had a ‘soft landing’ was ages ago. If they pump too much cash into the economy like they did during COVID, there will be consequences. We’re seeing that now.
Now with this Iran situation, oil prices will likely rise, leading to more inflation. Powell’s got to consider that data, and if inflation ticks up, he might hesitate to make any moves.
Yeah, we’re heading back to that stagflation debate. If the economy slows and inflation rises again, Powell’s stuck. He can’t ease up on monetary policy to help the economy without risking inflation.
June’s inflation numbers were slightly up year-on-year and month-on-month, but still below expectations, which could be a good sign. July will be key because if those numbers rise again, we’ll see panic set in.
Powell is always cautious with his statements. After any Q.E., he tends to say that his decisions will depend on the data. He never commits to changes in rates right away.
Not sure it affects all countries equally. Everything normalizes eventually. 2008 was tough for places like Spain and Greece, but they’re doing fine now.
He’s definitely late on cutting rates. Trump’s not gonna be happy about this. Powell seems to keep basing decisions on potential outcomes rather than acting on the current situation.
Yeah, inflation’s lower compared to when he cut rates 50bps last year to help Biden before the election. I really think he’s letting politics dictate his decisions.
Bump.
FOMC conclusion later, with Jerome Powell's decision with the interest rate, and it will be followed by a talk/speech, then a press conference.
It will definitely be another decision of NOT changing the interest rates, and an announcement that he will "wait for more data" before making a decision.
Is he already late from decreasing rates? There should be one by this time of the cycle, no?
Too late Powell refuses to cut rates again, Trump will be furious. Powell still basing his decisions on what could happen. Inflation is lower than when he cut 50bps last year to help Biden in the run up to the election. I am convinced that Powell is politically motivated with his policy, he despises Trump & wants to destroy his administration.