BTC Halving Cycle Experiment: Will It Affect Prices in 2026-2027?

I’m doing a little experiment to see how the fifth halving cycle impacts BTC prices. Based on past cycles nine to be exact I'm estimating a low of about 30k to 40k in this cycle.

but isn’t that kind of risky? Relying on past patterns can be hit or miss. Just because it worked before doesn’t guarantee it’ll work again. Ever heard of history repeating itself? Well, sort of.

Totally get that. No one can predict the next bullish run timing. We didn’t know exactly when the last run would happen either. Halvings and market conditions are tricky to pinpoint.

Four-year cycles? Yeah, that’s where it started. But it seems like now it's just become this so-called magical concept. People forget the basic idea of halving less supply, more demand, right?

True, but I think the halving still plays a role. Bitcoin hit its ATH after the last two halvings 2016 and 2020. This time, though, things changed a bit, like the ETF approval affecting prices before the halving itself.

Couldn’t agree more 135% agreement, actually. After the first halving, there was no economic logic to wait for price increases. Everyone knew what was coming. The cycle logic is quite flawed in economic terms.

I recall this site called "Bitcoin Obituaries". Crazy how many times BTC has supposedly died. 477 deaths and counting, right?

Lol, yeah. It’s wild how BTC dodged death from 2011 to 2012 but had like six near misses in 2011. Go figure.

There may still be some subtle movements in the market, but I think those are just people trying to catch patterns. It’s psychology, really. But I wouldn’t trade purely based on that. Too many variables can mess with predictions.

Yeah, trying to predict based on halving cycles can lead to disappointment. Many analysts have been wrecked trying to time the market. The cycles feel like they stay the same but often shift, especially now.

The fact is that BTC has changed a lot over the years. Prices aren’t the same as ten years ago. Economic factors are big players now, like energy crises affecting currency strengths.

The OP might be on to something. It feels like the same cycle will repeat, but there are always variables. I’m expecting a dip from current highs, but forecasts are still risky.

True that! The pattern has been steady, but I believe it rhymes, not repeats. Diminished lows could happen since we haven’t had a major black swan event recently. If nothing crazy occurs, we might not see lows like before.

June 2026 and my BTC is pretty much stable not where I expected it to be at 30 40k though. Just gotta wait and see.

So you’re playing the waiting game? Good luck with that! Are you saying your returns are based on paper profits? Did you even buy back your BTC?

Nope, still just a paper scenario. I won't buy back until we hit that 30-40k range.

From where I see it, the market is in your favor right now. With prices dipping recently, hitting your target could be tricky. I don’t think we’ll hit that 30k mark, honestly.

Hmm, interesting point. If BTC drops to that range, a lot of people might panic-sell, losing out on potential profits. But if it doesn’t, will you regret waiting?

Current dips don’t even make me anxious. The stock market is holding up crypto prices. When that bubble pops, I might see lower numbers than we’re even discussing.

You might be overthinking it. You can pinpoint solid buy and sell times based on historical trends. It’s simple: buy one year after the ATH and sell the following year. It’s worked before, right?