So apparently, AI companies now account for like 44% of the S&P 500's market cap. Their valuations are insane, with a median forward P/E ratio around 31x, kinda like the dotcom bubble all over again. Total valuation for these 38 AI firms is close to $2.5 trillion, mostly fueled by debt. That's 12 times Bitcoin's market cap… crazy, right?
AI Stocks Dominating the Market: Bubble or Boom?
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I think a lot of these bubbles don't pop hard. If you're in a bubble but diversified, you keep the talent and skills from those companies. So you might still come out on top in the long run.
I’m seeing economists talking about an AI bubble. They say when it bursts, it’ll drag down crypto too. Some predict it could happen this fall. But! It hasn’t happened yet, so maybe it’s not all doom and gloom. Yann LeCun mentioned that AI tech itself isn’t the bubble; it’s the hype around it.
AtomicForkFull Member
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#4Jul 20, 2022, 01:22 PM
C’mon, you can't be serious. Before AI got all this attention, heavyweights were already dominating S&P 500. It's not a coincidence that the biggest names in AI are the 'magnificent seven'. Claiming investing in these plus others isn’t diversifying is just wrong.
its_matrixSenior Member
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#5Jul 20, 2022, 02:51 PM
Yeah, but these valuations are wild! They probably won’t match future profits. Plus, there's so much circular financing among these companies. It really does feel like we’re heading for a disaster, kinda like the dotcom bubble. Sure, AI has benefits, but it still needs a human touch to work properly.
kevin_bridgeFull Member
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#6Jul 20, 2022, 05:17 PM
If you include big names like Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft in AI, it makes sense why AI stocks dominate the S&P 500. But yeah, I reckon the bubble will burst, just not in a catastrophic way. It might just shift funds to companies with real impact, like how the dotcom bubble helped Google grow.
You’re saying 38 AI companies can’t all crash at once? Really? The S&P 500 tracks 500 firms, so while 38 make up a big chunk, they can’t all go down simultaneously. It’s just not how it works.
tony_4tl4sMember
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#8Jul 21, 2022, 02:54 AM
You’re missing the point about diversification here. You talk about buying into S&P 500, but investing 44% in those 38 companies isn’t diversification at all. Buying Bitcoin and Ethereum? Now that’s spreading your bets.
The more people call this a bubble, the more I feel it might not be one. A lot of those who were wrong about Tesla are back at it. Let’s see what happens with Nvidia.
This bubble could burst way harder than dot-com, considering today's economic landscape. Just look at Warren Buffett; he’s sitting on a mountain of cash, waiting for the right moment. His track record is solid, that’s gotta mean something, right?
kevin_atlasFull Member
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#11Jul 21, 2022, 08:38 AM
Once something gains traction, people start shouting bubble. I think a correction’s inevitable but not a full-on pop. If anything negative hits AI, sure, some stocks will tank, but the S&P 500 has a lot more diversity than some think.
chris.viperMember
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#12Jul 21, 2022, 11:53 AM
Bubble is a term thrown around a lot. AI isn’t just smoke and mirrors. There’s real revenue and traffic. Some AI tools are actually useful, like spotting cancer cells early. Sure, some are just fluff, but there’s real value too.
I might be alone here, but I don’t see AI as a bubble. There are tons of use cases waiting to be unlocked. Even if it is a bubble, the industry will bounce back, like the dot-com era but less severe.
The market’s so irrational right now. That guy from Big Short is shutting down his firm because he can’t deal with this market. He’s not buying because everything’s overpriced, and shorting risky stocks like Nvidia seems dangerous too. Total mess.
ben.matrixNewbie
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#15Jul 21, 2022, 07:45 PM
According to the Bank of England, AI stocks indeed make up 44% of the S&P 500. That’s a scary lack of diversification. Sure, indexes diversify generally, but when half of it rides on the same hype, that’s not real diversification. The high forward P/E ratio echoes back to the dot-com days.