Hey everyone. Just came across this Stock to Flow model while digging into Bitcoin. It’s supposed to help figure out Bitcoin’s long-term value. Thought I’d share so we can all learn together.
Stock to Flow Model: Is It Still Relevant?
7 replies 367 views
sigma_minerNewbie
Posts: 37 · Reputation: 8
#2Jan 22, 2019, 06:09 PM
I mean yeah, but this model's not foolproof. A lot of prediction models fail, and this one is just like the others. It’s not gonna give a perfect price forever, for sure.
Cool find, but can we really trust it? Seems like just holding Bitcoin is the way to go for profit. But I guess OP’s points might help us see how well we’ve done over time.
Hindsight makes it look good, but they tweak the calculations as time goes on. I tried to follow it and totally missed the top. The author even changed stuff when it peaked. It’s just an estimate, not a magic formula.
Honestly, it’s lost a lot of credibility after failing to predict the last bull run. People stopped talking about it until now. It feels like the author keeps adjusting things to fit his narrative. Anyone can make a model and call it accurate.
yield_2021Full Member
Posts: 23 · Reputation: 550
#6Jan 24, 2019, 04:16 PM
No model can really predict Bitcoin’s price long-term. It’s all speculation, and prices are totally unpredictable. It’s just gonna go up or down without any real explanation, that’s the market for you.
mike.degenMember
Posts: 37 · Reputation: 228
#7Jan 24, 2019, 05:00 PM
True, nobody here can predict the market. Even short-term TA often gets invalidated. Trying to guess long-term is even tougher since so many factors come into play. This model feels dead, honestly.
Yeah, Bitcoin has 21 million total, but what about the ones lost? If people lose their coins, the actual supply might not match up. How can the model work if the supply changes? Seems like it’s not as reliable as everyone thought.