New Approach to Understanding Crypto Collapses

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boss_2020Member
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#1Aug 5, 2017, 08:22 AM
Hey everyone, I’ve been digging into a fresh way to look at systemic risk. Instead of the usual VaR models, I’m using something called Langevin Dynamics. My model is called ART-2D, which stands for 2D Asymmetric Risk Theory, and it sees risk as this conserved vector field. Now, why does this matter for crypto? Well, I found that there’s a specific threshold for phase transitions in the market (Sigma = 0.75). When I tested this against the Terra/Luna collapse, the model hit this critical point a whole 5 days before everything went south. This kinda suggests that "algorithmic stability" is more about the underlying physics than just the code itself. What do you all think?
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