Old topic closed. New look for lucif now. Analysis reloaded.
Market Dynamics and MtGox Analysis
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Can we really analyze those MtGox "fake" numbers? Seems like the prices there are showing a risk that didn’t exist before. Like, if MtGox hits over $120 while other exchanges are below $100, that’s just not right.
Totally get what you mean. Trading on MtGox is like navigating through quicksand with that risk premium being over 10% sometimes. Charting actual risk against other exchanges would give a clearer picture. Gox is still a major player, but it kinda messes with true price discovery.
Using MtGox data as long as others are following their trend.
But they’re not. The gap is just getting wider. Charting MtGox means juggling two things the risk premium and the actual exchange rate. If MtGox price jumps due to a bank scare, what’s that even showing?
Lol love your new nickname.
ledger_yieldMember
Posts: 2 · Reputation: 208
#7Dec 31, 2025, 05:46 AM
First page hype!
One speculation thread to unite us all!
Gonna miss lucif, hello masterluc.
I'm tempted to go long at $105 based on my 6-hour signals. But if I'm wrong, I'm seriously gonna regret it. Waiting for the right moment is the hardest part.
So… it’s basically game over? Time to buy gold?
dave.walletNewbie
Posts: 27 · Reputation: 5
#12Jan 2, 2026, 01:18 PM
Notice how we have huge volume at both the bottom and the top. Maybe we’ll trade within this range for a while?
$108 has been holding firm on Gox for 3 days. Will it stick around?
I’ve seen chatter about bearish reversal patterns on IRC. A whale might decide the direction.
wallet_2015Hero Member
Posts: 1 · Reputation: 2323
#15Jan 4, 2026, 06:50 PM
I agree. Until Gox fixes their issues, BTC prices there are inflated due to the limited USD withdrawals. But I’ve had decent luck with bigger SEPA transfers clearing quickly.
It’s not that straightforward. If MtGox rises but others stay steady, who’s to say which is right? Prices fluctuate together, just more with MtGox sometimes.
sam.vectorFull Member
Posts: 1 · Reputation: 769
#17Jan 5, 2026, 09:45 PM
Or maybe prices on other exchanges are being kept down because people cash out on Gox? Both sides make sense.
I’m hesitant because prices have been stuck in that negative BB zone for two months.
What about that envelope, "Master"?
Not buying it. If what you’re saying is true, arbitrage would be working, and the gap wouldn’t be growing.