Is the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Still Relevant?

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Posts: 7 · Reputation: 40
#1Apr 5, 2020, 02:35 AM
Seems like everyone is convinced the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is a sure thing. Reading through Twitter and Reddit, it's like this cycle is treated as gospel now. But what if this is the cycle where it all changes? Not saying it’s dead, just wondering if we're too reliant on a pattern that worked before.
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shard_2013Full Member
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#2Apr 5, 2020, 04:05 AM
Too early to say anything for sure. If you think the cycle is over, then watch for more countries to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve currency. Right now, individual investors and ETFs still dominate the scene. Until we see more action from governments, I’m skeptical about a big shift.
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dave.forkMember
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#3Apr 5, 2020, 04:16 AM
Agreed, we're acting like it's a prophecy. This cycle hasn’t given crazy returns like the past ones. I think the next might even be less exciting, maybe just a few times the current bottom. Once those OG wallets start shifting to the big players, that could change things.
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fullnodeSenior Member
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#4Apr 5, 2020, 05:20 AM
Honestly, I thought we already accepted that the cycle is changing. A lot of people seem to think it won't follow the same path anymore. But I still see a surprise supercycle coming, even if it’s not the same as what we’re used to.
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GigaOmegaMember
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#5Apr 5, 2020, 05:32 PM
Before everyone gets too comfy with the idea that the cycle is real, it might be too late. Just saying, now is a good time to buy Bitcoin compared to a month ago. The cycle might not be what it used to be, but waiting for confirmation seems pointless.
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ledger_2013Senior Member
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#6Apr 5, 2020, 08:48 PM
I've said this before too. People seem to think the 4-year cycle will just repeat. But if it was that predictable, we'd all be rich by now. The market changes, and assuming it’ll do the same things is a mistake.
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wagmiNewbie
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#7Apr 6, 2020, 02:46 AM
Yeah, we look confident because it worked so far, but nothing's guaranteed. Halving is a fact, but it doesn’t mean prices have to soar afterwards. We're making assumptions, and honestly, the pattern might break sooner than we think.
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#8Apr 6, 2020, 06:56 AM
For real, dollar-cost averaging has eased my stress. It helps me stick to my plan and not get caught up in the chaos.
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5tacks4tsHero Member
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#9Apr 6, 2020, 11:57 AM
In my opinion, it’s already broken. Look at the Bitcoin rainbow chart. Last cycle barely touched the 'cheap' area, most of it was in 'accumulate' or lower. If that’s a key indicator, then we haven’t had a cycle since 2021.
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0xSigmaHero Member
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#10Apr 8, 2020, 02:56 PM
You can believe in the 4-year cycle or not. But just remember your strategy matters more than the cycle. Long-term investments shouldn’t be affected by short-term patterns.
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cobra88Newbie
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#11Apr 8, 2020, 03:26 PM
Most folks still cling to the 4-year cycle because they think history repeats itself. But with all the institutional interest and ETFs, relying on that cycle is risky. It’s better to focus on your own strategy.
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serHero Member
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#12Apr 8, 2020, 06:58 PM
While some doubt the cycle, others who once called it dead are now shifting back to the cycle idea. It’s all over the place. Just trust your gut and don’t stress over everyone else's opinions.
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#13Apr 8, 2020, 10:38 PM
This cycle has become a guideline for many. Halving affects supply, which usually raises prices. But with big companies entering the space, things might be different this time around.
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kevin2019Newbie
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#14Apr 8, 2020, 11:29 PM
One thing’s for sure, the cycle will change eventually. But for now, it feels like the same pattern is showing up again. We tend to complicate things instead of just trusting past patterns.
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#15Apr 10, 2020, 09:14 PM
Completely agree with the OP. The cycle won’t hold this time because of the institutional money coming in. Traditional finance investors are quick to sell off when things get shaky.
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#16Apr 12, 2020, 09:05 AM
It’s valid to be confident because Bitcoin’s past patterns show price behavior after bull runs. But that doesn’t mean it’ll always follow the same path.
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mr_apeNewbie
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#17Apr 14, 2020, 03:22 PM
The 4-year cycle is likely to continue, but it’ll get weaker each time. Supply and demand still play a role. With each halving, new supply gets cut, so prices could rise.
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maxi100Newbie
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#18Apr 14, 2020, 08:54 PM
The Bitcoin rainbow chart? Total joke. The creator just keeps adding new colors whenever the previous ones fail. What’s next, a whole new name for it?
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#19Apr 14, 2020, 10:18 PM
I’m not sold on the 4-year cycle being guaranteed. I just don’t see why it would end. The halving is a big deal, and as long as that happens, there'll be speculation leading to cycles.
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5tacks4tsHero Member
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#20Apr 15, 2020, 12:56 AM
It’s been adjusted for sure, but it still gives a decent view of how cycles have been going. If the corrections are as deep as before, I might reconsider the cycle theory.
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