Is History Repeating Itself in Crypto?

Check out these pics and let’s talk about them. Could things really be this straightforward? I doubt it.

Just a heads up, patterns can totally fail. Look at the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model. Everyone thought history would repeat itself... but it didn’t.

These crashes look similar, but the causes are totally different. 2018 was a natural bubble, RSI hit 70%. I missed that, so I can't explain it fully. 2022? Way more chaos. That $69K peak was a bubble too, and then we had all these artificial crashes. It was wild.

Honestly, it feels like a weird coincidence. Or did CZ pull a fast one with his tweet?

There’s been a lot of chatter about manipulation. Hard to ignore the patterns from past years. I kinda agree with the bubble idea, but who knows what’s random and what’s connected?

Saw a vid saying two bottoms hit right after midterms in 2014 and 2018. Interesting, right?

Patterns? They don’t mean much, honestly. S2F is just one example. Even Benjamin Cowen said his model is toast. Check out the charts on lookintobitcoin.com for some perspective.

Doesn’t need to repeat. Just observing the trends. I bet we’ll see Bitcoin swing from $20K down to $10K, just ‘cause there’s low volume. Resistance is weak in this range. Below $14K, it gets tricky with more price points to consider.

This isn’t like the 200WMA or S2F that can overshoot. This hit the nail on the head. Sentiment is so low right now. Retail is ghosting crypto. So why wouldn’t this be the bottom?

Not so simple, man. It’s a fear-driven market with little liquidity. A measly 4K BTC drop took us from $19K to $17K. That’s nothing compared to the total supply. People panicking over frozen funds on FTX got rekt.

Every time there’s a big ice pile, it’s going to melt. We’re just waiting for it. The charts look fine. Price drops need solid planning, same goes for rises. Investors are just waiting for the right moment.

Can’t sleep on fractals. The market’s different now, but history has a way of rhyming. You can’t ignore how block rewards impact prices over time. I’d buy now rather than at $50K, unless crypto is done for.

So this pattern kinda failed. Zoom in and you’ll see prices dipped below the ATL briefly then bounced back. If this pattern holds, it was just two weeks off.

Yeah, but we know why it didn’t hold. Regulations might come soon to stop exchanges from misusing funds. FTX messed us up last cycle. Next one could see Bitcoin skyrocket if those changes happen.

2013, 2017, and 2021 all had ATH a year after halving. Prices inflate to unsustainable levels and then correct back down. That’s the cycle.

The expected downtrend happened for a bunch of reasons. Economic crises, wars, exchange collapses. But buying during dips is happening too. Positive news is starting to come back, giving hope.

But this time there’s a recession that’ll impact everything. Patterns are overrated, but I hope people consider the recession when investing. We might see a diluted version of the four-year cycle.

Just comparing two steps isn’t enough to predict the future. It’s like seeing the first two in Fibonacci and thinking they’ll all be 1. We have some hopium, but it’s still inconclusive.

TL;DR: prices go up and down. I can’t predict when. Long-term, I think Bitcoin will outperform dollars and euros.

Couldn’t agree more. Everyone talks about patterns, but no one actually profits from them. If we did, we’d be rich. Halving events are exciting, but I think people rely on those cycles too much.