The current Bitcoin situation is super interesting. Based on past bull cycles, we might get an idea of what's next. It appears bullish either way, which is good news!
Here's a quick summary:
- Comparing cycles: right now looks a lot like 2011-2013 and 2015-2017.
- Metrics such as MVRV ratio and Coin Days Destroyed hint that investors are accumulating like they did before.
It's gonna be fun to see where this leads us.
I think we’re more like the 2015-2017 cycle. Like you said, it’s steady and slow. If you look at the Bitcoin Cycle Low Multiple chart, we’re in a similar spot as Era 2 and Era 3 back then. I honestly believe that Bitcoin’s mathematical structure means it’ll keep following a similar market path.
If you get into Bitcoin’s past, you'll find some patterns that repeat. Sometimes they match up consistently, but not always. You can always pick out things when you stack more than two cycles against each other and analyze the price patterns and bull runs.
Wait a sec.
2011 fits into the 2009-2012 cycle. And 2013 fits in with 2012-2016. Then 2015 aligns with 2012-2016 too. So here’s the thing: each ATH is a year after key events like halvings. The quiet period in 2015 mirrors what we saw again in 2019 and this year too.
The upswing from 2016 to 2017 was fueled by halving and led to that ATH. Just like we saw in 2012-2013 and 2020-2021. So I really think we could hit another peak in 2024-2025.
Totally true! The game has changed. Back then, institutional investors were almost non-existent. With regs coming into play, market behavior is shifting. Look at this year, way fewer pump-and-dump scenarios compared to previous years.
It's starting to behave like a regular asset, which is definitely a positive sign.
Honestly, 2011 feels too far back to use for predictions. Times were different back then. So much has changed in the market.
But you gotta stay optimistic. Even if we’re nearing old peaks, the lows have been decent this year. So there’s room to push higher.
Plus, the 50-day just crossed over the 200-day average, and it’s sitting above the 50-week now. Looks good for the long run!
I’m leaning toward the steady rise too for this cycle. Can’t forget that back in 2011, market cap was way smaller.
Sure, BTC could see another parabolic rise, but with the current market cap, a steady increase feels more realistic. Big money has to come from somewhere, and a massive BTC buy might not achieve the same impact.
It's a small sample size, but we shouldn't expect cycles to repeat identically. Finding patterns is tricky.
The ATH before the halving kinda changes the game too, so we might just be carving out a brand new path with a different cycle amplitude.
True. The data we have is way too new, making cycle comparisons tough.
Unlike traditional assets that have tons of data, we’re kinda starting from scratch, piecing things together like in 2017. Some of us were just getting into it, and it’s hard to predict future moves. But we keep hearing about that "Bull run" and the four-year cycle.