Estimating Bitcoin Price Probabilities: Your Thoughts?

So, anyone curious about the chances of Bitcoin hitting 100K before 2025 or even 200K by 2026? I’ve whipped up this Python script that breaks it down using past price changes.

Sounds cool! I’m working on a script too to keep it updated, with some graphing features. I plan to simulate up to the end of this year using last year's data.

Tried your graphing script and it’s really good! I’ve tweaked it a bit to accept command line inputs. Mind if I share it here?

Haha, I know what you're thinking, why not use the end of 4 years ago? Who cares, right? Anyway, here’s my simulation with a $74,057 starting price. 95% chance of hitting $100K. What do you think?

Nice! Thanks for that histogram function, it looks slick! Just expanded mine with more command line options and CSV saving for easier data handling.

I’m thinking of a different method. They say past performance isn’t a sign of future results. But what if it is? I’ve got a script to match past % changes since 2012 for predictions.

Interesting, that shifts the focus from probability to pattern similarity. Kinda like those TA folks comparing charts. Maybe expand it to consider the top 100 similar performances instead of just five.

I appreciate your input. Here’s a cleaner version of my script, now with proper headers. Still trying to figure out the issues when simulating more than 250 days.

Think I nailed down the problem. If the second best index is too close to the current date, it can mess up the projection. Working on fixing that.

Wait, I made a mistake earlier. The script behaved correctly, but if you project less than 300 days from the last data date, it won’t show full results.

Since the market dipped post-pump last year, I ran some new simulations. Thanks to @DirtyKeyboard for keeping the CSV updated!

Looks solid! The variables are a headache though. I’m curious, what if we made the histogram title something different? Might help set buy/sell strategies.

The original one does track max prices! I added a max option for the histogram and ran fresh simulations with a starting price of $85,000.

Getting a bit complicated over here but I love it! Maybe we could automate this with a bot or test it on smaller currencies to see results?

Just ran simulations with new data, starting from $106K. Returns a 66% chance of hitting $110K within 14 days. Next goal $130K in 90 days. Script says 56.73% chance.

New simulations suggest we might be in a late bull or early bear market. With a starting price of $68K, it shows just a 17% chance of reaching $100K in the next 90 days.

Hey there, I’m popping in. Maybe tweak that simulation a bit? I’ve got some data if you want it. Found a cool historical source too.

Link me that source, I'm definitely interested. Always good to have more data for these simulations!