Did you guys catch this news?
Bitcoin jumped around 7.75% during the US-Iran conflict, while gold dipped 5.5% and silver crashed over 13%. But of course, good ol' Peter Schiff has a different take...
I do not think he is wrong, what he meant as 'the US-Iran conflict is not bearish for gold. It is accelerating the de-dollarisation trend that was already quietly reshaping how central banks and sovereign wealth funds hold reserves' is that gold may not increase now but it can later increase as people are dumping dollar.
I agree with you that bitcoin increased during the war in Iran and it is a very good alternative to gold. In fact I prefer bitcoin to gold.
Some months ago, we can see how gold has been performing to this time we are currently into, same also applied to bitcoin that made all time all through last year, but unfortunately we are already on the dip, but we can't see of how long this may last, until we receive the indication that makes us consider a more valuable assets for an investment, similarly today, bitcoin already hit $75,000, this asset has always been what's going for an profitable even than gold in many cases.
Yes, majority of us here prefer Bitcoin over Gold obviously. And in this conflict, it has proven itself again just like in the pandemic wherein there are a lot of uncertainty and yet the market is so resilient that in the 4 years or so, Bitcoin remains stable or it work as design, i.e. sound money, hedge and self-preservation of our wealth.
Of course, Peter will have to defend Gold at all front, it could be bearish after it's magical run. But I don't think that it has something to do with the war. Could be their cycle or it's the mental fatigue from some Gold investor and so they shift to Bitcoin for now.
Gold price recently has nothing to do with the war, we can not expect an asset that has been increasing since last two years and increased significantly and doubled its price last year no to have a sluggish time. That is what is happening right now, we should not expect such from gold and its market has cooled for awhile.
People should think very well of which one to invest in, I prefer bitcoin because I see more RoI in bitcoin than goldd in the next 2 to 3 years.
De-dollarization for me is real and is happening, but it's slow because of a lot of factors already, like diversification driven by geopolitics and emerging economic power.
For me, Bitcoin fits into the de-dollarization, but not in the way many people agree to or hype it, because for me, the dollar has differences with Bitcoin, although there are some things that have similarities, but not all. Bitcoin benefits from de-dollarization, especially as Bitcoin is being decentralized.
Many Bitcoin investor are likely gloating as Bitcoin rises in price and gold fall slightly amid the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. But they forget that gold has doubled in the past year, while bitcoin has lost more than 50% in just the last 5 month.
As a bitcoin investor, witnessing the price increase at this stage is truly exciting. But a single event is not enough to conclude that Bitcoin has completely outperformed gold or that people prefer Bitcoin.
It is not just you, we all choose Bitcoin for that reason. Everyone believes that bitcoin will yield better returns in the long term, and no one invests in Bitcoin to protect against the short term impact of war or geopolitical instability.
It's been happening, however, they are not successful as dollar still emerge as the main world currency. There has been challenges up to know, but what can they do? US is still the biggest economy and with Trump as their President, it looks like they will be the dominant force again. As for Bitcoin, I guess it's very simple for investors, you can literally carry Bitcoin across the border if needed in case of a conflict. And that could be the reason why the price is going up since the start of the war as there could be wealthy individuals in the Gulf region hedging it to Bitcoin. As for Peter Schiff, what can we expect of this guy? He will remain to be one of the critics of Bitcoin and I don't see him making a U-turn anytime.
Its really happening and that counter action done by Iran to accept Chinese Yuan for their oil is one big move to discredit US dollar. If Iran will succeed in this war, there's bigger effect on the economy of US and for sure that many country will choose to deal with Chinese Yuan compare to US dollar and slowly the global landscape might get change.
After those NATO countries decline to participate on the war that leave statement that US is slowly starting to lose their influence. The action of Trump create massive destruction on their country and they may pay high on bad decisions they made if they lost against Iran.
Nothing makes sense on the financial markets anymore. The markets aren't behaving in a logical way. I don't know what causes the prices of precious metals to go down while BTC to go up. The times of economic uncertainty are supposed to be bullish for the safe heaven assets. Why the gold price is going down?
Schiff is theoretically right with this one, but reality can be different than theoretical models. Gold is supposed to grow, but it isn't right now.
The process of de-dollarization isn't bad for crypto. Many traders and investors could sell their dollars for crypto, but the problem is crypto volatility and the overall market sentiment. Maybe the BTC price is going up in USD, because the US dollar is going down.
Finally some good news for Bitcoin! It was not funny seeing Bitcoin perform so badly against gold at a time people are looking for alternatives to the dollar. It was expected that Bitcoin will benefit from that financial adjustments, unfortunately, Bitcoin was among the worst hit by that as gold and silver enjoyed the lion share. Now we see Bitcoin recovering, it sends a good signal and I hope the momentum is sustained.
But as others have said above. Gold has risen significantly over the past two years, and we cannot expect it to continue rising without a correction.
Furthermore, the war is not yet over and its impact on the economy remains unclear. It is too early to say that the market does not operate in a logical way
The USD is closely linked to oil thanks to the petrodollar system, and USD is appreciating because oil prices are rising. I just checked and the DXY index is fluctuating around 100.
First, Peter Schiff, a well-known Bitcoin hater doesnot want to acknowledge that Bitcoin is maturing to become a safe haven asset during conflict. He is just using the delorisation analogy as an excuse for the underperformance of gold. He would have mocked Bitcoin if gold had done better.
The de-dollarisation process has been on for a long time. But it has gained more momentum in Trump's regime. The US has become an unreliable trading partner to its long-time allies. His inconsistent economic policies, tarrifs and wars are making some nations move away from the dollar.
It wasnt actually performing bad but rather it was actually people who were actually looking at it at a competitive level and expected that both be in serious competition with each other such that when Gold and silver increases bitcoin should follow suit, neglecting the fact that each has its different market trends and that they are usually not tied to each other.
Bitcoin like you pointed out was falling when gold was increasing simply because bitcoin had actually been bullish for over a year then and the market rightly was just changing trends. But people like Peter Schiff needed moments like this to actually make bitcoin look less of an asset but now that the table has turned we see clear economical reviews now.
Bitcoin was going down when gold and silver were going up for many months during the whole tariff saga. The US/Israel conflict with Iran has only recently escalated to a full blown war. Its going to take more than 3 weeks to see the full impact on financial markets. Trump has recently said that the war is already over and that Irans military is 100% destroyed. Initially, this helped keep the impact minimal, but the longer things get dragged out, we will start to see a greater effect on the economy.
Peter Schiff could be right and if other nations, that are growing weary of the US, start dumping the dollar, then this will undoubtedly be good for gold. That doesnt mean that things will be bad for Bitcoin. They will both benefit from decreased USD dominance.
I did not pay attention to what he said about bitcoin because he is really a stubborn and oldfashioned person. However, I disagree with you in suggesting that gold is underperforming in this conflict
Before concluding whether gold has underperformed, let's look back at its growth over the past year. A year ago, the market capitalization of gold was just $19 trillion, and now it has reached $33 trillion. It has increased by $14 trillion in just one year. An asset with a market capitalization more than 10 times that of Bitcoin and a gain of over 80%, yet you say it is underperforming?
Gold has risen significantly, and its entry into a correction phase is unsurprising. So, it is impossible to rely on a single indicator to conclude that it is underperforming
The war is not over yet, and the worst is yet to come, it is too early to say anything.
Yes, Ive seen the nonsense of taking a sample period of less than a month and drawing conclusions from it, which is treating the viewer like an idiot. Its been done by commentators I used to have some respect for, such as Pompliano, whom I can no longer take seriously.
Thats exactly what Im getting at. Looking at a time frame as short as the war which is less than three weeks is just daft.
I wont even get started on Schiff. He has some good ideas about inflation and how damaging monetary policy is, but his view on Bitcoin is laughable. Hes been claiming for over a decade that Bitcoin is a bubble and will crash to zero.
Imo Peter Schiff doesnt even hate bitcoin. He is using it to attract clicks. It is just another business for him. He can hate bitcoin as much as he wants and it wouldnt harm nobody but he can still benefit from this behavior. As people hate him back because he hates btc, it creates a loop of clicks and views and interactions as you can see even in this thread.
Most bitcoiners think Peter hates btc and that might be true but still they cant ignore him as well. They dont let Peter shout at some wall or something. They keep answering their accusations and in the end Peter gets even richer because now thanks to you more people heard about him. Smart.
This is such a short-term view IMO. I know that gold is being used as a diversification tool in case there are problems with the economy, specifically the dollar. With recent developments, I think the run-up in gold prices might have caused fear of the dollar falling. I know that hedging is a great way to save yourself from losses.
There are still things happening, and we haven't seen the full picture yet.
Oh well, maybe there are narratives why suddenly gold becoming the best asset while Bitcoin before the end of the year losses so much of it's value, maybe we are just starting to see the bear market. And so same with gold right now, according to Schiff it's bear market although he has another story behind, it's the dedollarization. Nevertheless, with the conflict, we can only wonder if Bitcoin is truly a hedge. We might have to wait till the war is over, to say that indeed it is. And right now, it's down 5% already, to $70k. So let's see if this is just a trap and signal is not sustainable.