Hey all,
So the onchain metrics are showing strong demand around the $80,000 mark, which is pretty interesting. BTC bounced back from that level after dropping from its October all-time high. The average entry levels seem to be holding up, and with the TMM and ETF cost basis converging in that area, it looks like a key support zone.
Bitcoin found solid support at $80,000?
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Interesting perspective... what about the miners?
At $90k they earn like $1.50 after costs, but at $80k it drops to just $0.29. Seems like most mining operations are commercial now, right? I mean, if their profit margins are that tight, they could pull back on mining if prices fall further.
I’m not really focused on short-term moves. Looking back at past cycles, I’m planning for accumulation during this bear market. I expect BTC might drop around 55-70% from its ATH, so I’ll be ready to DCA and buy more when it gets closer to those bottom areas.
We’ll see soon enough, especially since selling pressure is rising. Honestly, I have a feeling that before Christmas, we could dip below $80K, maybe even hit $74-75K. Not sure if this bear market will be as brutal as before, though with new buyers, but I doubt $80k holds.
We’ve already fallen about 30% from the peak, and I sense more downs coming. The new buyers aren’t absorbing all the pressure. I’m preparing for at least a 60% drop. Even Saylor’s big buy didn't boost the price at all.
That bounce off $85k felt weak. BTC struggled at $90k too. I doubt we’ll see $100k by year’s end. There are events that could push the price up, but I feel like downward pressure might keep it from consolidating.
Honestly, this market is so disappointing compared to past post-halving trends. Analysts keep getting it wrong, and the support levels keep shifting. I wouldn’t have expected such a low drop from ATH, but at least institutions are still buying aggressively.
Why's it disappointing?
BTC shot from $16K to $125K. That’s a massive gain! Bear markets don’t flip overnight. Give it time through next year to see how this unfolds.
I feel the same as you, wondering when the miners will draw a line. They seem like real indicators of support levels for me, even if it’s not scientific. Just makes sense.
A lot of small miners are out or on the verge of quitting. It's all gone commercial now. Big firms snag cheap land and low electric rates. I heard they’re buying land in Texas, so as long as it's profitable now, they're in.